J.G. Ballard, surely the sharpest critic of late capitalism, offered up the bleakest literary prophecies of what sorts of chaos would be unleashed in the human psyche by changes in the environment brought on by pollution and technology. Ballard was writing about the endgame effects of global warming long before such a term or concept existed, even on the scientific fringes.
In The Burning World (aka The Drought) the author portrays a dry, nearly barren global landscape caused by industrial waste forming a chemical chain that catastrophically disrupts the precipitation cycle. Populations are uprooted, needing to move towards the oceans or die as the rivers turn to streams. The Drowned World is set in the year 2145 in a post-apocalyptic, heavily flooded London with tropical temperatures. Both novels explore what happens morally and socially when modern societies devolve to a hunter/gatherer culture.
But Ballard was writing science fiction, wasn’t he?
We may be finding out sooner—much sooner—rather than later how prescient Ballard’s dark, apocalyptic visions were. A report released today by the World Bank projects that much of Bangkok could be underwater before 2033 and that parts of Africa, Pakistan, India and Afghanistan could face severe drought by mid-century.
Via Reuters/Raw Story:
The flooding of 40 percent of the Thai capital was just one of dozens of negative effects the Washington-based World Bank warned would happen if the world grew warmer by just 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit), which it said is likely to occur in the next 20 to 30 years under a “business-as-usual” scenario.
Under World Bank President Jim Yong Kim, the global development lender has launched a more aggressive stance to spur action on climate change. Kim has said it is impossible to tackle poverty without dealing with the effects of a warmer world.
The report builds on an earlier World Bank study released last November that shows the global impact of a 4 degree Celsius rise in temperatures by 2100.
Keep in mind that the National Climate Assessment global warming impact study found that even if mankind seriously put the brakes on carbon emissions by 2030, California would still face a likely rise of SIX degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century, causing rising ocean levels which will contaminate the water table and a severe increase in out of control forest fires.To say nothing of what this will do to the state’s agricultural output. To be clear, two models with varying inputs more or less predicted the same outcome… whether we do anything about greenhouse emissions or not.
The National Climate Assessment report used words like “apocalyptic” and “unprecedented.” You can read it here.
The World Bank report focused on the misery that higher temperatures will cause for developing countries. Sub-Saharan Africa and much of Asia will bear the brunt of the effects and their populations will need to move closer to water sources or perish. Imagine resource scarcity anarchy Mad Max-style writ large across entire regions and continents. Droughts are likely to hit north-western India, Pakistan and Afghanistan the report said. That should be fun.
Staple crops such as wheat, rice and corn have troubles in warmer climates, and the World Bank reports projects that up to a jaw-dropping 90% of the population in sub-Saharan Africa could be starving within forty years.
Even if North America and Europe will not suffer the grimmest fates from climate change (within your lifetime and mine, at least) imagine what this is going to do to the price of putting food on the table for your family. Everything always goes to the highest bidder.
The World Bank’s report can be read here.